Nearly 60 percent of the Italians rejected the controversial constitutional reform proposed by the Minister President, Matteo Renzi. Renzi, who linked his political destiny to the voting result, offered his resignation. Regarded as an avid reformer, he has pushed through the most numerous changes among all of his European peers. His resignation from the post of the Prime Minister leads to a formation of a transition government until the official elections in 2018. The ensuing economic uncertainty following this change will concern especially Italy’s troubled financial sector. The already agreed upon rescue plan for the distressed Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena could be possibly contested by the new decision makers. A failure of the world’s oldest bank could possibly put Italy’s other financial institutions under considerable strain.
In the recent rerun elections the Austrians have decided, who will unquestionably move into the Vienna’s Hofburg as the new Federal President. With a surprisingly safe lead of more than six percent, the Austrian electorate expressed its clear preference for the “green” candidate, Alexander Van der Bellen, and against the right-wing populist, Norbert Hofer. The latter was not able to profit from the wave of anti-immigration sentiments sweeping Europe. As a consequence, the Öxit – Austria’s exit from the EU – is no longer an issue. The election also brought an end to the political farce, which had begun with the decision of the constitutional court annulling the first vote results from Mai on the grounds of irregularities and which had reached an embarrassing climax with defective election envelopes that could not close. Van der Bellen’s success possesses, however, a non-negligible flaw: Although supported practically by all parties, he could not really achieve a decisive victory.
Europe’s political agenda for 2017 is packed full with potentially enormously explosive contents. For one, the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, which will take place on March 15, 2017, are expected to result in yet further shift to the right. The populist, Geert Wilders, is likely to become the grand winner. For another, the UK’s new Prime Minister, Theresa May, intends to start Brexit negotiations with the European Union by the end of March. Even if this undertaking were to be blocked by a court ruling, the timetable is set and informs us well about the pace of the withdrawal.
On May 7 the French will vote for their new President. Considering how wrong the pools’ predictions were before both the Brexit and the US elections, this time we must seriously take into account the possibility of Marine Le Pen’s victory. Should this indeed happen, it would be a consecutive slide to the right following the Netherlands. Its impact on Europe’s future political landscape cannot be overrated. Looking at Germany, there too it is reasonable to expect that the AfD (Alternative for Germany) will gain votes by a considerable margin during the elections to the parliament (Bundestag) in autumn. Even if Angela Merkel were re-elected, she will unmistakably face a strong wind blowing from the right.
Your Wealth at a Glance.