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Outlook: “Melt-up” rather than “Melt-down” – swisspartners – The art of finance

“Melt-up” rather than “Melt-down”

Despite some short-term clouds on the horizon, we expect risk assets to continue their upward trajectory buoyed by improving global economic growth, increasing earnings, low interest rates and continued easy money policies from central banks.

Bonds are likely to be a somewhat boring asset class in this environment.

Perhaps one of the major risks, as we approach the seasonally strong last quarter of the year, is the chance of a melt-up rather than a melt-down.

With the US having passed the budget recently, tax reform by year end looks like an imminent possibility and has not been fully priced in by markets, as yet. An easing of Catalan tensions and the move towards a grand coalition in Germany (likely to be Europe- and Macron- agenda friendly) could all cause a sharp squeeze upwards in markets as sceptical investors would be forced to invest for fear of huge underperformance (read: career risk).

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