EU under pressure from many directions

Refugees not welcome in Hungary and England. Tricky Brexit negotiations about to begin. Clinton in the lead.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has suffered an embarrassing defeat in the referendum on the EU’s refugee-sharing scheme. Although an overwhelming majority of voters rejected the EU’s migrant quotas, the turnout of only 40 percent was too low, rendering the process null and void. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that missing the necessary 50 percent threshold will prevent Orban from pursuing his xenophobic policies.

Who benefits from whom?

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May intends to play hard ball during Brexit implementation. Immigration is to be restricted, while the access to the European single market should be retained. As alluring the proposition to exploit advantages and avoid disadvantages may sound, it will not be plain sailing for Theresa May. The upcoming negotiations with the European Union will be tough, and the UK might choose to be rather careful not to overestimate its position. The EU exports to the United Kingdom constitute merely 3 percent of its gross domestic product, while for the Brits, with 12.5 percent of its exports going to the European Union, EU as a whole constitutes an important trading partner.

It is likely that the EU will make UK’s exit as hard as it goes. Otherwise the temptation for potential imitators, of which there are a few, and who already demonstrate their desire to close borders or pursue an independent interest rate and currency policy, would be too great. Clearly Switzerland is to be mentioned among the possible free riders. Should the issue of the free movement of persons be resolved to UK’s liking, Switzerland would be in a better position to negotiate the terms of implementing its mass immigration initiative.

Trump or Clinton

In a few days, on November 8^th, the American voters will decide who will be the President of the United States of America for the next four years. Although – against all odds – Donald Trump seems to have come dangerously close to assuming this office, his own vanity and arrogance will most likely make him fail. We assume that it is Hillary Clinton, who for the next four years will represent Democrats in the White House. She will certainly be more predictable than Trump. Furthermore, contrary to her campaign declarations, she will be unlikely to succeed in pursuing her hard course against financial institutions and the pharmaceutical industry. Nor it is likely that she will want to.

And why care for palavers of yesterday…