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Brexit, Trump and Terror stir up Minds and Markets - swisspartners – The art of finance

Brexit, Trump and Terror stir up Minds and Markets

Britons vote, also about the future of the EU. Trump’s success brings Republicans in a quandary. Terror fosters shift to the right in politics.

From the point of view of Austria’s capital, Vienna and the Federal State of Carinthia an elegant solution to conveniently handle the bankruptcy of Hypo Alpe Adria under Carinthia’s acceptance of its contingent liability, has failed. The proposal that 80 percent of the total liabilities would be paid back, was rejected by the creditors group consisting of banks and insurances. It is incomprehensible why an insurance company (government liability) exactly in the event of damage (bankruptcy) should not have to pay. Must now the state of Carinthia instead of Hypo Adria file for bankruptcy? Vienna will certainly not stand on the side-lines.

United Kingdom must remain in the EU

Great Brittan’s possible exit from the European Union, shortly Brexit, will dominate the debate over the next months and will determine the faith of the EU for years to come; it may also enforce its demise. On 23rd June, British voters will decide if they want to stay in the EU. With this Prime Minister David Cameron keeps his campaign pledge, while at the same time positioning himself on the side of EU advocates, that is, against leaving the European Union.

With the concessions he has negotiated for his country at a special EU summit, Cameron caught some tailwind. According to the deal, EU immigrants will receive in the future full social benefits of the Brits only after four years. With this provision, similar to demands raised in Switzerland, immigration is to become less attractive. Nonetheless, recent polls have shown more support for leaving the EU than for remaining in it. When, however, companies are surveyed, a downright unanimity prevails in both England and in the rest of Europe that Britain must stay in the EU.

United against Donald Duck

The success of Donald „Duck“ Trump becomes slowly but surely eerie for the Republican elite. Should he win the majority of electoral votes during the internal campaign, he will automatically become the republican candidate in the presidential elections and then most probably run against Hilary Clinton for the presidency of the United States of America. After Marco Rubio’s, Trump’s main internal rival, exasperated withdrawal following defeat even in his own State, the unlikely becomes increasingly more probable. Many conservative Republicans would, for better or worse, vote in such a case for Clinton. She has managed to overcome her initial weakness and currently stands far ahead of her competitors. It looks like the November elections could actually be decided between Trump and Clinton.

IS fosters drift to the right

The brutal bombings in Brussels perpetrated by the Islamic State (IS) demonstrated again that Europe must urgently step up its fight against terrorism. The call for more state and more security will continue to encourage political right-wing tendencies. In addition the IS terror in the Arab countries contributes to the refugee wave and helps to fuel right-wing populism, while in Germany the growing discontent over immigration flood lead to surprisingly good results for the right-wing party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), in the recent parliamentary elections in Hessia. Thirteen percent votes for AfD in Hessia send a clear message against latest migration wave and the official refugee policy made in Berlin. As if this were not enough, in the following elections in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt, the currently governing coalition (CDU-CSU and SPD) received a slapin the face. Having received nearly as many as 25 percent of all votes in Saxony-Anhalt, AfD and therefore, right-wing populism, could celebrate an alarming victory. This phenomenon can be observed in all of Europe. Viktor Urban in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France or Geert Wilder in Holland are further instances of protest election results reflecting fear in the face of the current migration wave.

 

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